Rice traders and experts are optimistic that Thai rice export volume could exceed 14 million tonnes this year, the historical record following higher demand in the world market as well as lower supply in many nations.

The success export volume is depended on which parties will lead the new government in the next few months as fear that the pledging scheme will increase Thai rice price significantly and create export difficulty.

Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorably president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, pointed that Thai rice export volume is expected to reach a record of 11-12 million tonnes this year as strong export in the first half.

However, if the new government has shifted to use the pledging project instead of income guarantee, Thailand export could be lower than 10 million tonnes this year due to unattractive export prices. Consequently, monthly export volume could be dropped from an average of one million tonnes to 400,000 tonnes, he said.

At the Thailand Rice Convention 2011, held in Bangkok yesterday, panellists shared the same view a policy on rice management of a new government will be key factor to influence Thai rice export competitiveness.

Jeremy Zwinger, president and chief executive officer of the Rice Trader, USA, said that Thai rice export could reach 14.41 million tonnes this year, while export value will larger than US$5.72 billion.

"However, the high rice export volume and risk for rice traders is in the remaining year also depends on India monsoon and Thai election, which will influence rice prices in the market and demand for rice consumption," he said.

Zwinger said that people can switch to wheat or other cereals if the price is too high.

Thai export in the first five months of the year has exceeded largely by 5.72 million tonnes, or up by 60.36 per cent year on year. In May alone, Thailand has export 1.9 million tonnes of rice. Thailand is expected to export 10 million tonnes of rice within October, said Zwinger.

Demand from major importing countries, including Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines will also drive up export volume for Thai rice.

Bangladesh needs to import about 10 million tonnes a year. Previously, India is a major supplier of parboiled rice for Bangladesh, but India has continued suspend its rice export due to concern over monsoon to affect its domestic consumption.

Other concerned factors to affect rice export volume in the global market is exchange rate, supply of other grains.

Exlavya Chandra, executive director of Phoenix Commodities Pvt Ltd, Thailand, said that Thai parboiled rice export volume could exceed 3.5 million tonnes this year due to India has continued to ban its rice export.

However, Vietnam will continuously to compete export more parboiled rice each year.

In 2012, Vietnam will export 200,000 tonnes of parboiled rice, from an expected of 75,000 tonnes this year.
Chandra noted that Vietnam and Burma have high potential to become the world's major rice supplier due to it has plenty of land, and high potential to produce more rice.

Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai is confident that Thailand will able to export at least 10 million tonnes of rice this year. However, she has also worried over an implementation of the pledging scheme to lower Thai rice export volume in the future.

Duncan Macintosh, director development officer of International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), said that rising number of world population will increase trading volume of rice in the global. Countries in Africa is one of rice import countries that higher demand for rice each year.

By 2035, the additional of 116 million tonnes of rice are needed to feed the world populations, while Asean countries need additional of 21 million tonnes to feed the region.

Rice trade in the global is expected to increase from a current of 30 million to 40 million tonnes by 2019.

Subash Dasgupta, senior plant production officer to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, said that rice production should up by 70 per cent by 2050 to feed the global populations, which is expected to reach 9.1 billion.

An increase of productivity, improve technology transfer, and increase market chain are important to boost the industry growth, he said.

Source: The Nation